Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter!
In today’s newsletter, I’ll share an update on BTC’s price action as well as talk more about what is going on with Ethereum and what we could expect going forward.
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Is Bitcoin Heading For New Lows Amidst Weakness?
On the Monthly timeframe, BTC is inside a red-blue range.
In June, BTC found support at the red Range Low support.
Which enabled a move to the blue Range High resistance in the following month of July.
After which a rejection took place to send BTC back to the red Range Low in August.
Which then enabled a move back to the blue Range High this September.
The reason I enumerate this sideways movements is to demonstrate that price, has been consolidating up one month, down the next, up the next, down the next, inside a clearly defined range.
That’s the first takeaway; the second takeaway is that this range-bound behaviour, though occurring in a “up one month, down the next, up one month, down the next” fashion, this month we have already seen the entirety of the upside move take place.
This leads to a the following question and conclusion:
- Why has the entire upside move come and gone so quickly, in half the time as before?
The answer to that, should the Monthly Candle close like this, is that the red Range Low support has only as much strength so as to propel price up to the Range High resistance to fill seller bids and accumulate sell-side pressure and build upon the existing seller momentum.
This is demonstrated in the swift rejection and in the fact that this current September candle has been almost entirely cancelled out, showcasing a weakening support in the red Range Low, the psychological ~$20000 support.
If the Monthly Closes just like this, this will be the psychological reading of this price action.
Because this price action is also invalidating a young, early-stage Monthly Higher Low which figured prominently only days ago.