How Much Could Bitcoin Rally Prior To Its Upcoming Halving?

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The Bitcoin Halving

Here are a few core principles we need to account for when thinking of the Bitcoin’s price in the context of the Bitcoin Halving.

Firstly - diminishing returns.

Principle 1:

Returns prior to and after the Halving seem to be diminishing with each Halving.

Pre-Halving 1 returns amounted to +636%.

Pre-Halving 2 returns amounted to +414%.

Pre-Halving 3 returns amounted to +344%.

And of course post-halving returns.

Post-Halving 1 returns amounted to +8950%.

Post-Halving 2 returns amounted to +4000%.

Post-Halving 3 returns amounted to +623%.

And as a result, the conclusion appears itself that secondly - Bitcoin tends to rally most after the Halving.

Principle 2:

Bitcoin rallies more after the Halving than before.

But also the exponentiality of the uptrend is different post-Halving compared to pre-Halving.

The amount of ROI that BTC generates pre-Halving is lesser than post-Halving but at the same time it takes roughly the same time for BTC to generate that pre-Halving ROI vs the amount of time it takes for BTC to generate post-Halving return.

This makes sense - the Bull Market gets progressively more euphoric as it goes on and so the exponentiality of the uptrend post-Halving sees price grow more but what’s interesting is this takes a similar amount of time.

Principle 3:

Bitcoin rallies less pre-Halving and more Post-Halving, but these moves take a similar amount of time.

In a nutshell:

Pre-Halving 1, it took 400 days to rally +636%.

Post-Halving 1, it took 371 days to rally +8950%.

Pre-Halving 2, it took 518 days to rally 414%.

Post-Halving 2, it took 546 days to rally +4000%.

Pre-Halving 3, it took 511 days to rally 344%.

Post-Halving 3, it took 539 days to rally 623%.

More Principles…

Here are some more principles when it comes to price in the context of the Halving:

Principle 4:

Bitcoin tends to bottom anywhere between 400 to 518 days before the Halving.

And by the same token, what can be said about post-Halving growth?

Principle 5:

Bitcoin tends to top out anywhere between 371 to 546 days after the Halving.