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Bitcoin - The Major Resistance
Across cycles, Bitcoin always faces a cycle-defining major resistance area (red).
In Bull Markets, that resistance ends up being the Bull Market Top which prompt new Bear Markets.
And once the following Bear Market concludes, Bitcoin's price finally reverses, over time Bitcoin is able to break beyond this same region of resistance, and by breaking it BTC rallies to new All Time Highs.
Interestingly enough - Bitcoin always breaks this major resistance area (red) in the immediate months after the Bitcoin Halving (blue).
In this cycle - this resistance area begins from $45,000.
After the July 2016 Halving, it took BTC 243 days to successfully retest its red resistance area as new support before rallying to new All Time Highs.
And after the May 2020 Halving, it took BTC 123 days to successfully retest its red resistance area as new support before rallying to new All Time Highs.
After the April 2024, it is therefore reasonable to assume that BTC will successfully retest its red resistance area as new support in the immediate months after the Halving in an effort to positon itself for a rally to new All Time Highs.
Whether that's 4 months post-Halving like after the May 2020 Halving or double that time of 8 months after the July 2016 Halving...
The key takeaways are:
- Pre-Halving Bitcoin prices are cheaper than Bitcoin Post-Halving prices
- For maximum Return On Investment, it is better to therefore accumulate BTC prior to the Halving. By the time the Halving is around, it is better to have the majority of a position accumulated for the months that follow post-Halving.
- The old All Time High region will be turned into a new support in the months after the Halving and new All Time Highs will follow after this successful retest.