Bitcoin - Retest Before Upside?

Is the Bitcoin Local Top in? Four Year Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin - Four Year Cycle

Late last year, I posted a thread on the Four Year Cycle:

One of the main takeaways was that Candle 3 tends to open its new year at around the Bear Market Bottom.

Some downside wicking tends to occur, but generally the new Yearly Open in a new Candle 3 is as close to the generational bottom as things can get.

And this an update to the chart:

Indeed, the Yearly Open of the 2023 Candle 3 marked out the generational bottom and BTC has rallied over +100% since.

And now given that upside, it is becoming more pertinent to focus on where the Candle 3 could perform its Local Top.

After all - from this chart, we can also see that upside is limited in a Candle 3 period, with some scope for upside wicking, though the magnitude of that wicking varies from cycle to cycle.

And because we can't really pinpoint exact Local top and understand the magnitude of that potential upside wick in this current Candle 3...

If I were a mid-term trader who wanted to sell the top of the Candle 3 move and then rebuy lower, I certainly wouldn't be looking to snipe the Local Top exactly, but rather start reducing my exposure via a dollar-cost-averaging-like strategy as price climbs higher and higher.

The only question is...

Is the Bitcoin Local Top already in?

This is something that we'll cover in today's newsletter.

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