Will Bitcoin Revisit $100k Before Macro Breakdown?

Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter, a resource for investors who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.

Weekly Range - The Defining Battleground

Bitcoin is currently operating within a clearly defined Weekly Range between $86,000 (range low support) and $93,500 (range high resistance).

The latest structural development has been a marginal Weekly Close above $93,500, a type of close that historically places price in a particularly fragile position. 

When Weekly Closes occur marginally beyond a key level, the subsequent retest becomes structurally precarious.

In those situations, price must retrace only very shallowly to remain intact and successfully turn former resistance into new support. 

Any deeper pullback risks invalidating the breakout attempt entirely. In this case, Bitcoin was unable to produce that shallow retracement.

Instead of consolidating above the Range High, price traversed back through the entirety of the Weekly Range and dropped directly into the range low support region.

Bearish Crossover On The Bull Market EMAs

That move back into the range was accompanied by a sharp rejection from the $98,000 region, where the Bull Market EMAs (green 21-week and purple 50-week) are nested.

This rejection also coincided with the loss of a developing Higher Low, a structure that had been brewing and building in a similar fashion to what was seen in 2021. 

Losing that Higher Low is significant, as it removes a key structural buffer that could have supported continued consolidation within the Weekly Range.

As a result, attention shifts toward the strength of the range low support around $86,000.

While rebounds from this level have occurred previously, the character of those rebounds now becomes critical. 

Shallower reactions from the range low would suggest weakening demand, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown rather than sustained range-bound behaviour.

Historically, strong rejections that lead into downside continuation tend to occur later in the cycle, often toward the end of Q1, around March or April.

However, Bitcoin is already testing the lower boundary of its Weekly Range, placing added importance on the integrity of this support, as any early breakdown would represent a shift relative to that typical timing.

At this stage, the Weekly Range itself dictates directional bias. 

If Bitcoin can continue to hold the range low and potentially reclaim the lost Higher Low, price may remain confined within the range or attempt a relief-driven move higher.

Conversely, continued weakness or a loss of the range low would transition price toward downside continuation.

For now, this Weekly Range remains pivotal in every sense of the word, acting as the key decision point between a prolonged relief structure and the risk of deeper downside.