What's Next For Bitcoin?
Will Bearish Acceleration resume?
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Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Range May Become The Battlefield For Now
Historically, when we look back at the 2021 cycle, the upper green region acted as a major resistance zone, with price repeatedly failing to break beyond it in a sustained manner during that bull market phase.
Following that cycle, Bitcoin rallied prior to the halving to new All Time Highs, after which an extended post-halving reaccumulation period developed over roughly eight months.
That reaccumulation range formed between two green regions: the former 2021 final major resistance region below, and the green region above it, establishing a clearly defined post-halving reaccumulation structure.
Crucially, the lower green region — which had capped price during the 2021 cycle — transitioned into a 2024 support-demand region, forming the base of that reaccumulation range.
From that support-demand region, Bitcoin springboarded higher, breaking out of the post-halving range and rallying to new All Time Highs in the months that followed, confirming that this lower green region was where support had been found.
More recently, price has downside-wicked back into this same pool of liquidity, the region that previously generated the entire 2025 advance and the broader upside cluster that followed.
Given this context, what if the current rebound we are seeing from this old 2021 All Time High region-turned 2024 support ends up as a lesser relief rally compared to the entire 2024-2025 advance to the upside?
It's not yet clear whether Bitcoin will try to build a cluster of price action within its old Post-Halving Re-Accumulation Range or whether price will try to build a cluster atop this Range.
However, when viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.
But if BTC is able to build a support atop the old Post-Halving ReAccumulation Range then that raises the possibility of price attempting a move into the mid-$70,000s instead.
At this point however, Bitcoin is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range, even though it has already downside-wicked into the lower green support-demand region.
The upper green region on the other hand — which previously acted as post-halving range resistance — has not been decisively reclaimed as support and is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe:
If Bitcoin continues to find resistance at this ~$70000 area, then price could indeed start to develop a home within the Post-Halving Range.
At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develop will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration.