The Bitcoin Post-Halving "Danger Zone" Is Over
Bitcoin bottom analysis
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The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation Range
Last week, we spoke about the Bitcoin Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) which represents a three-week window after the Halving where downside volatility below the Re-Accumulation Range Low tends to occur:
In 2016, Bitcoin produced a long downside wick below its respective Range Low in the three-weeks following the Halving.
Based on this historical tendency it was therefore possible for Bitcoin to also produce some downside volatility below the ~$60,000 Re-Accumulation Range Low.
And history indeed repeated itself:
History repeated because Bitcoin produced a -6% downside wick below its current Range Low, mimicking 2016 price tendencies.
Of course, in 2016 the downside wick below its respective Range Low was -17% deep which is a far-cry from the mere -6.5% that Bitcoin produced in this cycle.
Nonetheless, the historical tendency repeated itself in a cycle from 8 years ago.
Here is today's update:
Bitcoin has now rallied +15% since bottoming on that downside wick below the Re-Accumulation Range Low.
The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation Phase in the Halving Cycle thus continues (red) uninterrupted.
And the Post-Halving "Danger Zone" has been satisfied; after all, price downside wicked below the Range Low in the three-week period after the Halving.
But in 2016 Bitcoin produced a downside wick below its respective Range Low three week after the Halving; this time, it took only two weeks after the Halving for Bitcoin to produce that fateful -6.5% downside wick below its current Range Low.
Technically, time-wise the Post-Halving "Danger Zone" will continue for the remainder of this week, to see out its third final week in this post-Halving window.
However, price-wise the anticipated effect has already occurred.
The downside wick occurred.
So price-wise, the Post-Halving "Danger Zone" is over.
Time-wise however, it isn't - so we'll need to wait a week for the confirmation of this zone being over for it to be official but it's a mere formality at this point.