The Bitcoin Post-Halving "Danger Zone" Is Over - Part 2
Re-Accumulation Range Low Is Protected
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The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" Is Over
The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple) represents a three-week window after the Halving where historical downside wicks below the Re-Accumulation Range Low tend to occur, specifically and most notably in 2016.
In 2016, Bitcoin produced a downside wick of -17% below the Re-Accumulation Range Low three weeks after the Halving.
In 2024, this current cycle, BTC repeated history and produced a -6.5% downside wick but this time two weeks after the Halving.
In any case, BTC had satisfied the "Danger Zone", at least from a price action perspective.
But now we can confirm that BTC has also satisfied the "Danger Zone" from a time perspective as well because the three-week window is officially over.
Overall - the Post Halving "Danger Zone" is over.
So what does that mean exactly?
History suggests it means that Bitcoin will no longer produce downside volatility below its current Re-Accumulation Range.
And if that indeed turns out to be the case over time, then the Bitcoin correction should be over and price should be able to maintain itself above $60,000 going forward.
Retest of Old All Time High Resistance
Late last month, we covered the downside wicking scenario on the Monthly timeframe as well:
Here is today's update to this chart:
Essentially, Bitcoin has successfully retested a major area of old resistance into new support, and downside wicked very close to that anticipated $56000 region (purple).
The retest was successful, despite the fact that the rebound that occurred last week has been cancelled out to an extent.
Price-strength confirmation continues to persist at these levels and the support is still holding.