Is Bitcoin Preparing For Upside?
And what would such limited upside mean in the grander scheme of the cycle?
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Between Two Old All Time Highs
On the Monthly timeframe, Bitcoin is currently positioned between $69,185 (blue, 2021 All Time High) and $73,884 (blue, 2024 All Time High), with both old highs together forming a broader cluster, supply region, or supply zone.
The 2024 All Time High in particular has been rejecting price for the past month and a half, and that remains one of the clearest features of the current structure.
In fact, Bitcoin has now produced back-to-back Monthly Closes below both of these old All Time Highs, and that is a very important development because it marks a clear shift in positioning.
If we compare this to the Halving Year period, Bitcoin had successfully turned the 2021 All Time High into support and later held the 2024 All Time High as support as well.
That is what makes the contrast so stark now, because before these levels were acting as support, whereas now they are acting as resistance.
At the same time, there is still half of April left to go, and so lots can still change from here.
Bitcoin is trying to position itself a little bit differently by attempting to reclaim the 2021 All Time High into new support while the 2024 All Time High still figures as resistance overhead.
So price is trying to build out a range around this region.
However, the Lower High formed through the upside wicks from last month and this month is still worth paying attention to, because it offers an early indication of sell-side pressure weighing on price at lower and lower levels.
And that tendency remains concentrated at the 2024 All Time High, where there still has not been any major development.
If Bitcoin is to develop more sustained bullish momentum, then it would first need to reclaim the 2021 level as support and then turn the 2024 level into support as well.
Only then opening the way for a possible challenge of the $82,500 macro triangle base resistance.
Quarterly Support Lost, Now Resisting
On the Quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin is showing a development that not many people are really talking about right now.
The 2024 quarterly resistance at $71,121 (red, prior multi-quarter resistance turned support) was never properly retested as support after the breakout.
And Bitcoin has since Quarterly Closed below that level, which means the retest has effectively failed.
Now, in the opening weeks of Q2 2026, price is already finding resistance at this previously lost support, turning that old quarterly level back into an overhead ceiling.
That is important because it places Bitcoin in a technically weaker position, especially if this bear market is indeed already around its midway point.
There may still be room for some upside wicking beyond this level.
But even then, that ceiling would likely stamp any further bullish progress and see price rotate deeper into the broader macro range between $71,121 and $58,871 (purple, macro range support).
And this also fits with what has already happened at the $82,141 (blue, macro triangle base resistance) region.
Back in 2025, that level produced a much stronger reaction as support, whereas the later reaction from the same region was far more limited, showing weakening support over time before the level was ultimately lost.
Best case, Bitcoin could still wick higher into the general $82,500 region before rejecting from there and from the more immediate $71,121 ceiling.
So while price has grabbed liquidity via the recent downside wick and is rebounding, this still looks more like trendless consolidation than a true directional trend.
And that rebound may simply serve as a means to an end in turning old quarterly supports back into quarterly rejection zones.