How Much Lower Could Bitcoin Go?

Bitcoin bottom analysis

The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation Range

Bitcoin has been consolidating between $60,000 and $70,000 for over 60 days now.

And over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has mostly been hugging this Range Low area, which is more reminiscent of the 2016 price pattern than the 2020 one.

In 2016, Bitcoin maintained the Range Lows for quite some time in the immediate aftermath of the Halving:

In fact, in the 21 days that followed the 2016 Halving, Bitcoin continued to dwindle to the point where once it reached the Range Low, price downside-deviated below it by -11% before reversing to the upside.

This is why it is worth introducing the concept of the Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple):

The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" suggests based on 2016 post-halving price behaviour that if BTC were to see additional downside towards or even below the current Range Low at $60,600 - it would be over the next upcoming two weeks or so.

The Post-Halving "Danger Zone" was inspired by the Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) that I spoke at length about in the Pre-Halving period.

The Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) denoted where Pre-Halving retraces tend to begin and it turned out to be quite accurate in preceding the -18% pullback that occurred this past March.

That -18% March pullback occurred 30 days before the Halving or so, whereas in 2016 the Pre-Halving retrace occurred 28 days before the Halving and in 2020 the Pre-Halving retrace occurred 14 days before the Halving.

As a result, Bitcoin in 2024 resembled tendencies of 2016 in the Pre-Halving period which is why it may be worth at least considering if BTC could continue to replicate 2016-like price tendencies in the immediate weeks after the Halving.

In the three weeks following the 2016 Halving, price produced some downside volatility below its Range Low and so it could be something to consider as a possible scenario also for price in 2024, especially given the fact that BTC is at the Range Low right now and has been around this area even since the Halving occurred.

How Much Lower Could Bitcoin Go?

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