Can Bitcoin Get Back Above $100k+?
Q1 relief on the cards for BTC?
Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter, a resource for investors who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.
Bitcoin Breakout Looming Large?
Welcome back after the holiday break, wishing you a very Happy New Year.
Over the past several weeks, Bitcoin hasn't mustered much until very recently, whereby price Weekly Closed above the approx. Mid-Range of ~$90500 (dashed black) to enable a move into the upper portion of the current Weekly Range of $86200-$93500.
For most of Q4, BTC has rejected from $93500, upside wicking into said level before dropping in price.
Bitcoin is once again challenging $93.5k which is not just the Range High resistance of the Weekly Range but is also a confluent resistance with the multi-week Downtrend (black) that has plagued price since forming in mid-October 2025; this is only the third macro time this Downtrend is being tested.
Whether price rejects to send BTC down into a retest of the Mid-Range of $90.5k or manages to Weekly Close above $93.5k later this week isn't as important as the general direction BTC seems poised to continue to pursue: BTC wants to return above $93.5k.
Bull Market EMAs Await Above the Weekly Downtrend
Indeed, a Weekly Close above $93500 followed by a post-breakout retest (like in previous green circles) would confirm a breakout from the Weekly Range, confirm a break of the Weekly Downtrend, and would see Bitcoin challenge for a break beyond the converging Bull Market EMAs above (blue 50-week EMA and green 21-week EMA).
And history suggests there's a good chance price will break beyond these EMAs.
However, history also suggests that if this is indeed an early-stage Bear Market, BTC won't be able to successfully reclaim the EMAs into new support, and if price indeed breaksdown from the EMAs, then retesting them as resistance from the underside during their crossover would be a bearish signal.
A Weekly Range breakout and a Weekly Downtrend breach would of course be all positive price developments, but it appears the most important technical milestone will be re-securing the Bull Market EMAs as support, if BTC wants to firmly reassert Bull Market momentum.
And so a Range breakout and a Weekly Downtrend breach are essential in the first place for BTC to get closer to those EMAs.