Can Bitcoin Break $70k Again?
Short-term relief before mid-term downside?
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Old 2021 & 2024 All Time Highs Acting As Resistance
Bitcoin is currently interacting with two key horizontal levels: the 2021 old All Time High at $69,000 and the 2024 old All Time High at $71,300, which together form an important overhead resistance region.
Bitcoin has Monthly Closed below both of these levels and has since been flicking up towards them, repeatedly testing them from below while attempting to reclaim them.
However, each of these attempts has produced upside wicks beyond the levels rather than decisive acceptance above them, showing that price continues to reject from both former All Time Highs.
For Bitcoin to begin shifting this structure, price would need to Monthly Close above $69,000 by the end of March to position itself for a reclaim of the 2021 All Time High as support.
Similarly, the 2024 All Time High at $71,300 would likely require multiple Monthly Closes above the level in order to properly establish a reclaim process.
Both of these former All Time Highs are now turning into resistance while Bitcoin currently finds support at the 50-Month Moving Average.
In bear markets, Bitcoin often initially reacts from the 50-Month Moving Average but eventually loses it as support.
Once that breakdown occurs, the level typically turns into new resistance before further downside continuation follows.
By contrast, during the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, Bitcoin breaks above the 50-Month Moving Average, successfully retests it as support and then begins a Macro Uptrend that ultimately leads to new All Time Highs.
For the moment, Bitcoin is effectively sandwiched between two key reactive zones — resistance at the former All Time Highs above and support at the 50-Month Moving Average below.
The current reaction from the 50-Month Moving Average is therefore only enabling Bitcoin to test the 2021 and 2024 All Time Highs as resistance for the time being.