Bitcoin - Temporary Retest Before More Upside?
Bitcoin is trying to retest $93.5k as support to springboard future upside
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Weekly Close Beyond the Downtrend
Bitcoin has performed a marginal Weekly Close above $93500.
And what's interesting about this Weekly Close is that it resembles the April 2025 Weekly Close, where back then price also produced a marginal Weekly Close above $93500.
But even so, the April 2025 Close still positioned price for a retest of $93500 into new support and on this occasion, technically the positioning is for price to do the same.
More, just mid-week last week Bitcoin was hovering around $98k and it looked like price was going to perform a Weekly Close very similar to November 2024.
Instead, BTC produced more of a April 2025 version, but the takeaway is the same across all scenarios: $93500 is now in the process of trying to be turned into new support to confirm a breakout from the Weekly Range of $86k-$93.5k.
The EMAs Are Acting As Resistance
A big part of this latest retest is Bitcoin's rejection at the Bull Market EMAs (green 21-week and purple 50-week EMAs).
Just like in November and December 2025 when Bitcoin was rejecting from $93500 all the way down to ~$86k, and then in early 2026 BTC was rejecting from $93500 but in a much shallower manner...
It's possible this latest rejection from the EMAs is only the first rejection, but that next revisits of the EMAs will demonstrate weaker rejections and shallower retraces until finally BTC is able to make its way above the EMAs.
But history is suggesting that once BTC does make its way above the EMAs, price won't be able to properly reclaim the EMAs as support, which would see BTC breakdown from the EMAs.
So it's not that the EMAs will be acting as a strong resistance in the near future; it's that the EMAs won't be a good support once reclaimed and thus any future deeper downside won't be caused by a rejection from the EMAs but rather by a failed retest and weakness to hold the high $90000s sustainably as a floor.