Bitcoin – Preparing for Q1 Relief?
What the rest of 2025 and early 2026 hold
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Weekly Range and the 93.5k Threshold
Bitcoin continues to stabilise within its Weekly Range, inhabiting this structure for several weeks as price consolidates between the two black levels.
Despite the sharp acceleration that previously carried price above the turquoise liquidity pool, Bitcoin did not spend much time in this region, which had been built through extensive consolidation earlier in the year.
That compression created inefficiencies on the chart, and the current range is now working to fill those gaps as support and resistance levels form and buyers and sellers transact.
As this structure matures, the key trigger for any bullish continuation remains the same: a Weekly Close above the Range High at $93,500 (black), followed by a post-breakout retest.
That Range High is also the Four-Year Cycle Level, and historically Bitcoin has closed the year above it during similar phases.
Should price secure that Weekly Close before year-end, a retest in early January could set the stage for a Q1 relief rally, a sequence that aligns with typical seasonal tendencies.
On the Daily timeframe, the structure inside this Weekly Range is evolving.
Rejections from the Range High have been weakening, with each one producing a progressively shallower pullback.
This behaviour has helped establish a Higher Low, replacing the earlier sequence where deviations below the Range Low occurred first through candle-bodied clustering, then through downside wicks, and ultimately not at all.
Sustaining this Higher Low opens the possibility that an Ascending Triangle may be forming against the Range High resistance.
Combined with the broader context — including the potential for Bitcoin to close the 12-Month candle above $93,500 — sentiment is steadily building that price may be positioning for a stronger start to 2026.
If that yearly close is achieved, early Q1 could mark Bitcoin’s first attempt to challenge the Weekly Macro Downtrend, introducing the next major phase of the cycle.
EMAs Converging Beneath Macro Downtrend
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the Weekly Range, the interaction between price and the Weekly Macro Downtrend has begun to tighten.
The Bull Market EMAs — the 21-Week and 50-Week — are gradually converging beneath this trendline, forming an early-stage confluence that often develops during relief-cluster phases.
This compression reflects the maturing structure: even modest relief attempts are beginning to encounter resistance sooner, pressing price beneath a narrowing band of supply.
The EMAs are approaching a point where a crossover could occur, though projecting its timing remains uncertain.
Any relief rally developing in the interim would naturally lift these moving averages, disrupting simple extrapolations.
Nevertheless, the convergence mirrors historical periods where tightening EMAs preceded a broader continuation of weakness, especially when forming directly beneath a macro downtrend that has rejected price repeatedly throughout the cycle.