Bitcoin Post-Breakout Retest Complete
Recovery After The Crash
Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter, a resource for investors who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis
Bitcoin's Monthly Bull Flag
Last week, we discussed the Monthly Bull Flag post-breakout retest ahead of time:
Here's today's update:
Bitcoin has indeed successfully pulled back into the Monthly Bull Flag top and the retest has been successful.
Of course, the retest was a volatile one, producing a long downside wick in the process.
But this downside wick has now established a few key things about trend:
- This downside wick forms the third consecutive Monthly downside wick at a Higher Low.
- This downside wick is solidifying the December and January candle-bodied lows as Monthly support.
- The Monthly Bull Flag Bottom and Bull Flag Top are both figuring as support for price.
At this moment, Bitcoin has successfully retested the Monthly Bull Flag Top as support to confirm the breakout from the pattern.
Technically, trend continuation should ensue next.
The prerequisite to that will be continued price stability above the Bull Flag Top of ~$96500.
Bitcoin's Weekly Triangle
Last week, we spoke about Bitcoin's triangular market structure, dating back to early December:
We spoke about how it initially built out as a Daily triangular pattern before transitioning into a Weekly pattern over time:
And here's today's update:
The intra-pattern consolidation continues, rejecting from the Lower High resistance (while producing upside wicks beyond it) and rebounding from the Higher Low support (while producing downside wicks below it).
The Weekly ranging within this pattern continues, with price compressing into the apex of the triangle in preparation for the next trend.
BTC will need to Weekly Close above the diagonal resistance of this pattern this breakout and that would be a positive confirmation signal for price producing post-breakout follow-through on that aforementioned Monthly Bull Flag post-breakout retest.
February 2025
Overall, last week's newsletter seems prophetic as we re-read the except:
This perspective still stands, with February being a typically strong month with an on average ~+15% average return across time.
More, in Post-Halving years (2013, 2017, 2021), BTC has produced double-digit upside in the month of February and 2025 should be able to follow in those historical footsteps.