Bitcoin - On The Cusp of Extra Bearish Acceleration?
The 200-Week EMA Breakdown
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The 200-Week EMA Has Now Been Lost
Bitcoin has just produced a Weekly Close below the 200-week EMA, and this development is historically pivotal because it sits at the centre of a major confluence zone.
On the Weekly timeframe, the 200-week EMA aligns directly with the Post-Halving Reaccumulation Range High (top green region), with the Post-Halving Reaccumulation Range Low (middle green region) defining the broader structure of that range.
For weeks, price has been attempting to settle support at this 200-week EMA, trying to develop a demand region in what was previously a major supply area.
That brief support in the past enabled price to rally into new All Time Highs, representing a short-lived overextension from roughly $71,000 into the $120,000 region.
However, price has not historically demonstrated that this level is a structurally reliable support.
We know that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance.
We also know that it acted as a four-week support during a highly bullish post-halving environment, a period that coincided with the ETF launch and halving tailwinds.
But those were materially different market conditions.
In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response.
That imbalance has been conspiring toward what history suggests is a high-probability outcome: an eventual Weekly Close below the 200-week EMA and continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave.
That Weekly Close below the 200-week EMA has now occurred.
In doing so, the 200-week EMA has lost itself as support on this latest Weekly Close.
Price has opened the new week just slightly above the very bottom of the Post-Halving Reaccumulation Range High, which means there is still immediate interaction with this order block.
But going forward, now that price has Weekly Closed below the 200-week EMA, there is a strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.
If that underside retest holds, then price would fully lapse from this broader Post-Halving Reaccumulation order block.
At that stage, the structure shifts decisively from support defence to resistance validation.
The focus now shifts to how price behaves around the underside of the 200-week EMA.
If that level begins acting as resistance, then downside continuation becomes increasingly likely.
200-Week EMA Deviations & Clustering
On the updated Weekly chart, the loss of the 200-week EMA aligns closely with what Bitcoin has demonstrated in prior cycles.
In both 2018 and 2022, a Weekly Close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger. Price would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower.
That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself.