Welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter.
Let's dive into today's Altcoin Market Update, Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Rally phase, as well as Ethereum's price predicament and how all of these moving parts align well with the Altcoin Hype Cycles.
Then, we'll touch upon Chainlink and Solana in more detail in an effort to better assess their chances for outperforming and leading the Altcoin market for a second consecutive wave.
Altcoin Market Cap
Over the past few weeks, we've been taking a look at Altcoin Market Cap and its market structure that is currently taking shape:
For weeks now, Altcoin Market Cap has been coiling into the apex of this market structure (black), consolidating in preparation for its next major trend shift.
And given how far along Altcoin Market Cap is in this structure (i.e. it's centred right at the apex of the pattern), a major decision on trend should be achieved as soon as next week.
This consolidation at highs comes after a sequence of historic retest attempts.
First, it was the green circled retest of the green area.
This green area became a new support in 2023 whereas in 2022 it was acting as resistance (red circle).
The second historic retest came several weeks later (yellow circle) of the red horizontal level of $182bn.
By this point, it was clear that the successive retests of the green area and then the horizontal red level were essentially repeating history.
Because in 2021, Altcoin Market Cap experienced these sequence of retests as well.
And it was this sequence of retests that positioned Altcoin Market Cap for the third, blue circled retest which enabled fantastic upside to the $425bn mark (black resistance) on the two occasions that the retest was successful.
Fast forward to today and Altcoin Market Cap is still technically in the process of its yellow circled retest, periodically downside wicking into the red horizontal $182bn level over the past few weeks.
Nonetheless, the retest of the red level is still successful and has been for weeks and continued stability here would enable upside for Altcoin Market to revisit the blue circled area of $250bn over time.
In essence, Altcoin Market Cap is in the process of hammering out a base of support at the new Range Low of the red $182bn level before embarking on a move to revisit the new Range High resistance at $250bn.