Altcoin Market Update #138

Hello and welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
• Dogecoin (DOGE)
• Fetch.ai (FET)
• Hyperliquid (HYPE)
• Bittensor (TAO)
• Stellar (XLM)

But before we dive in, this Friday I’ll chart your Altcoin picks in an exclusive subscriber-only TA newsletter and will cover as many as I can

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Aerodrome Finance – AERO/USDT

Aerodrome is building a cluster at the same support where price previously trend reversed in March 2025, following the large liquidation wick into this historical demand region.

Revisiting this region is not necessarily a positive sign, but the fact that price is stabilising and forming a base after a prolonged period of consolidation does open the possibility for some relief.

At the same time, the downside wick has been gradually filled through candlesticks, and the continued clustering suggests that price may eventually dissipate into new lows over time. 

However, that does not rule out a relief move in the meantime.

For that relief to develop, price would need to clear these local highs, either via a Weekly Close above them or a Daily Close followed by a post-breakout retest.

If that occurs, price could begin to traverse across the range, forming a broader range-bound structure and attempting to move towards the range high.

From there, the reaction will be key.

If this is indeed a relief, then this range could evolve into a distribution range that may eventually break down after the relief phase completes.

On the Monthly timeframe, the current candle is showing a potential slowdown in sell-side momentum at this support.

A Monthly Close above this level would help strengthen the case for a relief rally developing from this range low.

Dogecoin – DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin has lost the multi-year Macro Uptrend (black trendline), which means the Macro Uptrend is over and a clear Macro Downtrend is developing.

At the same time, Dogecoin is unlikely to test this Macro Downtrend (yellow trendline) anytime soon. 

Historically, previous Macro Downtrends have shown that price does not get anywhere close to the downtrend until it is ready to break it and maybe even post-breakout retest it. 

That is why the previous downtrend is useful here, because it helps frame what this current downtrend may look like.

In the meantime, price is sitting at a Range Low and at a reaction zone (yellow region) that previously acted as resistance, then resistance again, and then support. 

It is also the liquidation wick bottom as well.

So very similar to AERO, Dogecoin will probably lose this region over time, but that does not mean price cannot rebound from here in the meantime as part of a range-bound cluster.

And if history is any indicator, then price would likely fall well short of the Macro Downtrend and instead reject from the Range High resistance (red region).

Perhaps even upside wicking beyond it, but still falling substantially short of the downtrend itself.

So relief remains possible for as long as this support continues to hold, especially since price has demonstrated stability here for an entire quarter. 

But that relief may simply build out a distribution range over time.