Altcoin Market Update #136

Hello and welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Ethereum (ETH)
• Injective (INJ)
• Dogecoin (DOGE)
• Hedera (HBAR)
• Render (RENDER)
• Ripple (XRP)

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Ethereum – ETH/USD

Ethereum is currently testing its multi-year uptrend (green), a structural support that has held since mid-2022.

This is roughly the fourth time price has interacted with this trendline.

Recently Ethereum produced a marginal Monthly Close below the green uptrend, which technically opens the possibility for the level to transition from support into resistance.

The breach has been shallow.

Rather than seeing immediate downside continuation, price is currently showing upside deviation beneath the trendline, with repeated wicks attempting to reclaim the multi-year support. 

Because of this, the level remains in negotiation rather than clearly confirmed as resistance.

On the Weekly timeframe, Ethereum has now produced four consecutive Weekly Closes below the green uptrend, suggesting the market is beginning to treat the level as resistance.

Although price is currently trading slightly above the trendline, the move remains uncertain because the weekly close has not yet been finalised.

If sellers regain control before the candle settles, the deviation could still be invalidated.

Structurally this behaviour resembles the early stage of a breakdown process, where price initially loses support, rallies back into it and begins treating the level as resistance.

But the breakdown is not confirmed.

For Ethereum to invalidate this bearish scenario, price would need to Weekly Close back above the green multi-year uptrend and successfully retest it as support.

If that reclaim occurs, the move below the trendline would likely prove temporary.

A successful reclaim could then open the door toward the green resistance region above, which has historically acted as a major pivot in Ethereum’s broader trend.

Earlier this year Ethereum lost that green region as support, producing a sharp upside wick that confirmed it as resistance.

Even if the multi-year uptrend is reclaimed, price could therefore still face rejection there.

If the reclaim fails instead, rejection from the trendline could trigger downside continuation toward the orange boxed region below.

Injective – INJ/USDT

Injective is unfolding a structure that closely resembles its 2022 fractal, where a breakdown sequence developed after key levels flipped into resistance.

During that earlier cycle price Monthly Closed below $4.18 (orange), turning the level into resistance before declining across the orange-to-orange range.

Eventually price Monthly Closed below the range low at $2.42 (orange), which then flipped into resistance and led to the final bear-market bottom forming near the $1 region.

The current structure is beginning to echo that sequence.

Price has already produced one key confirmation: the $4.18 level has been rejected, signalling the market is once again treating it as resistance.

With that rejection in place, price is gradually approaching the range low at $2.42.

For now Injective remains inside the orange-to-orange range, but losing the range high has shifted the structural bias to the downside.

If price revisits $2.42 and produces a Monthly Close below it, the market would break down from this range.

That move could open the door for a transition into the $1.22–$2.42 range, historically Injective’s final bear-market bottoming region.

With resistance overhead already established, the probability of a retest of the range low continues to increase.