Altcoin Market Update #126

Hello and welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Bonk (BONK)
• Monero (XMR)
• Binance Coin (BNB)
• Algorand (ALGO)
• Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
• Avalanche (AVAX)

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Bonk – BONK/USDT

Back in late July, BONK was hovering inside a historical region where upside behaviour had tended to repeat: 

Whenever price turned the green area (green) into support during an uptrend, it typically rallied into the first black resistance at $0.000027907 (black horizontal) and occasionally overextended into the higher black resistance at $0.000044913 (black horizontal). 

In each prior cycle, these rallies followed similar basing and springboarding behaviour from the green region.

However, history also showed that once BONK reached either of those black levels, those regions consistently acted as supply. 

Rejections from the black resistances repeatedly sent BONK back into the green region and in many instances, price even failed the green-area retest, breaking down toward the general blue level at $0.000016309 (blue horizontal).

That context mattered because BONK once again rallied into the black resistance in July.

And for BONK to avoid replicating previous downside behaviour, it needed to “rewrite history” by generating a successful retest of the green region instead of repeating the deeper pullbacks seen in the past.

Since that July analysis, BONK has formed a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, carving out a strong downtrend.

In effect, BONK did not rewrite history; instead, it followed the same downside trajectory repeatedly seen after rejections from the black resistance levels.

Along the way, the blue level at $0.000016309 (blue) — previously important as a structural cluster and interim support — failed to offer any stability. 

Instead of propping price up, the region acted as resistance during the retest phase, confirming a shift in market structure.

Price has now dropped into the final Weekly support region defined by the $0.000009494 (red region). 

BONK has already Weekly Closed below this level and tagged the underside of it, producing a bearish retest.

Should this level fail to reclaim, the structure favours downside continuation.

Beneath this region lies a wide, thinly supported range. 

If BONK turns the red band into new resistance, price could move deeper into that range toward as low as the next support at $0.000005293 (black horizontal). 

With very little historical support between the current red region and that black level, any continuation could unfold relatively quickly, which is why BONK would need to reclaim the red region to avoid a strong drop.

Monero – XMR/USDT

XMR has been hovering just beneath a major resistance at $422.09 (red horizontal), a level that triggered a rejection earlier this month and produced a pullback. 

Even so, that pullback hasn’t developed into anything substantial; instead, every dip into the green region has been bought back relatively aggressively, forming a sequence of higher Weekly Closes within the range.

At the moment, price is still trapped between the green region of support and the overhead red resistance, effectively forming a multi-week range. 

To enable trend continuation, the key requirement is a Weekly Close above $422.09 (red) followed by a successful retest of that level as support. 

Without that reclaim, upside expansion from this structure remains limited.

If price continues to struggle against this resistance, the buying pressure that has repeatedly propped price up from the green region risks being exhausted. 

A failure to convert that demand into a sustained breakout would reinforce this range and expose XMR to further tests of the green region over time.

XMR is effectively ranging beneath this resistance and is potentially on the cusp of Price Discovery, but calling it “on the cusp” is premature. 

There has been no Weekly Close above $422.09 nor a successful retest of that level as support. 

Until price reclaims this ceiling, it remains a rejection point, and the range structure persists.

The key now is to see how price reacts as it continues to press against this resistance.

Ultimately, the focus is not on the intensity of the dip-buying itself, but on whether that demand can drive a Weekly Close above the red level and establish it as a pivot. 

Only that reclaim would enable a fresh expansion beyond the range. 

If resistance continues to hold, XMR is likely to revisit support, with a risk that repeated testing weakens that level and limits future upside generated from it.