Altcoin Market Update #124

Hello and welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
• Filecoin (FIL)
• The Graph (GRT)
• Nano (XNO)
• Near Protocol (NEAR)
• Non-Playable Coin (NPC)

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Aerodrome Finance – AERO/USDT

Aerodrome Finance has been constrained by a macro downtrend (red diagonal) for a considerable time.

At this stage of the month, what truly matters is stability above this downtrend.Over recent weeks, price has revisited a crucial historical region between $0.70–$0.81 (black), a zone that has alternated between demand and supply across past cycles.

It previously served as a distribution range, but also as a re-accumulation and reversal point in prior market phases.

Currently, price has once again wicked into this region, producing a strong reaction and rebounding from it.Going forward, maintaining strength above this downtrend will be the key for continuation.

On the Weekly timeframe, confirmation will depend on whether price can sustain closes above the red diagonal.

Earlier, we saw a Weekly Close and post-breakout retest in late 2024, followed by another similar reaction in mid-2025.Now, a third Weekly Close above the same diagonal has developed, with price once again retesting it as new support.

Continued price stability above this trendline would enable further upside over the coming weeks.

By month-end, a Monthly Close above the diagonal would confirm that this former resistance is beginning to act as support, marking a potential macro shift in trend.

Filecoin – FIL/USDT

Filecoin has been trading within a macro range (orange), though 2025 has so far been defined by a macro downtrend (red diagonal) that began after price deviated below the range.

Recently, price achieved a Weekly Close above the downtrend, marking an initial breakout confirmation, and is now in the process of a post-breakout retest of this same diagonal.

This retest will determine whether Filecoin can confirm an end to its downtrend and transition into a new technical uptrend, one that could see price begin to re-enter the broader $3.00–$9.98 (orange) macro range.

At the same time, two historical all-time low levels (blue horizontals at $2.32 and $2.06) are also being retested as potential new support, following their earlier breakdown.Back in 2022–2023, these levels acted as downside wick regions; now they are being revisited from above.

A successful retest of both the red diagonal and these blue supports would allow FIL to consolidate in a multi-week range between roughly $2.00 and $3.00, establishing a stable base for a broader recovery phase aimed toward the macro range.