Altcoin Market Update #116

Hello and welcome back to the Rekt Capital Newsletter

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Avalanche (AVAX)
• Cosmos (ATOM)
• SUI (SUI)
• Optimism (OP)
• Arbitrum (ARB)

But before we dive in, this Friday I’ll chart your Altcoin picks in an exclusive subscriber-only TA newsletter and will cover as many as I can

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Let's dive in to today's Altcoin Market Update.

Avalanche – AVAX/USDT

AVAX has once again pressed beyond the $23.60 Monthly level (black). Historically, this has been a major resistance, repeatedly producing upside wicks without securing a reclaim into new support.

If AVAX is able to Monthly Close above $23.60 (black) and turn it into support, that would mark a psychological shift in the market.

Holding above this level would establish a foundation for trend continuation and could also signal that other Altcoins may begin to reclaim their own cycle-defining levels in the weeks ahead.

AVAX is working to build a cluster of stability. This resembles a developing Re-Accumulation range from mid-2024 (green circle), which if repeated, could open the green pathway toward the red resistance region that is increasingly confluent with the Macro Wedge top (blue):

On the Weekly timeframe, AVAX has been forming Higher Lows, each successive retest positioning price slightly higher.

A Weekly Close above the prevailing Lower High (purple), followed by a successful post-breakout retest, would enable price to revisit the red resistance region which will only become increasingly confluent with the wedge top (blue).

In effect, AVAX is on the cusp of stabilising above $23.60 and building a sustainable base.

With Higher Lows forming and the Weekly chart showing attempts to break the Lower High (purple) from early July, AVAX is increasingly trying reverse towards the Macro Wedge Top (blue).

Cosmos – ATOM/USDT

Cosmos is once again testing its long-standing historical demand area (green). 

Over the years, this zone has consistently absorbed volatility, producing multiple reversals from downside deviations into reclaims that later fuelled strong upside.

This demand zone (green) has acted as resistance only once, but has acted as support repeatedly pre-2020 on Binance Listing, late 2021, in late 2024, and now again in 2025 — in fact the 2025 current cluster is the longest and most extended yet.

More, price is curling upward in a U-shaped formation (orange circle), signalling diminishing sell-side pressure and gradual strengthening of buy-side momentum.

This multi-month cupping formation at a historically pivotal support adds weight to the view that the demand area is once again serving its historical role as a reversal base.

Zooming into the Weekly timeframe, the diminishing sell-side pressure and growing buy-side activity become more evident:

Price has been consolidating in a cluster that mirrors similar formations seen across other altcoins and even Bitcoin on shorter timeframes.

The structure resembles an inverse Head and Shoulders, with a left shoulder formed by clustered consolidation, a brief deviation to establish the head below demand, and a possible right shoulder now taking shape.

This entire structure is developing within the green demand zone.

Volume behaviour reinforces this pattern.

Declining volume accompanied the left shoulder and head — a typical sign of sell-side exhaustion.

Now volume is gradually inclining as the right shoulder develops, reflecting early buy-side strength.

With sell-side pressure having waned and buy-side strength slowly increasing, ATOM appears to be developing a constructive base.

This consolidation has lasted close to ten months, dating back to late 2024, underscoring the strong stability forming here.

How long can ATOM sustain this cluster before momentum finally tilts?