Bitcoin - Will Support Hold?
Stability is the name of the game right now
Welcome to the Rekt Capital Newsletter, a resource for investors who want to better navigate the crypto markets with the help of cutting-edge crypto research and unbiased market analysis.
Bitcoin - Weekly Close Below 21 Week EMA
Just a week ago, Bitcoin had Weekly Closed above the black $114.5k level and 21-week EMA (green) to position itself for a post-breakout retest.
The anticipated retest indeed occurred, however price failed to retest both levels; in fact, BTC has Weekly Closed beneath the 21-week EMA.
More, even though it is very early on in the new week, Bitcoin has produced an upside wick into the 21-week EMA to turn it into new resistance, rejecting from there.
A few weeks ago, BTC also Weekly Closed below the 21 week EMA but price didn't turn it into new resistance; on the other hand however when price recovered back above the EMA last week, price also didn't manage to turn the EMA into new support.
In saying that, Bitcoin continues to occupy the ~$108k level as support and that is the crucial area to hold right now; yes there is a subtle Higher Low (orange) that price has been downside wicking below and so for price to continue respecting it, BTC will need to Weekly Close above the ~$108k level.
The $107-$108k Level
This $107-$108k level happens to be the Monthly Range Low of the overall Macro Range between $107-$116k.
Generally throughout October, BTC has been upside and downside wicking beyond the Range High and Range Low, but generally keeping the Range intact.
Early this new month of November, BTC is downside wicking below the Range Low once again so it will be Bitcoin's imperative this month to keep the level as support to preserve the Range.
A big part of preserving the Range Low as support would be to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support.